The women's Asian Cup is about to kick off, with Olympic and World Cup qualification on the line; it's all to play for. Australia come in as the top favourites as well as the hosts, with Japan being possibly the only country that could challenge them for the trophy.
Australia are currently in a similar position to the Lionesses ahead of the 2025 Euros, with a lack of experienced goalkeeper options beyond their number one. With the other keepers not having the international experience needed for a high-pressure tournament like this.
This cause for concern is only amplified by the fact that their first-choice goalkeeper, Mackenzie Arnold, did not participate in full outdoor training during the final build-up to the tournament and was in the gym again, which could suggest differing levels of fitness or injuries. While there has been no evidence of a statement that she will miss matches, the managed nature of her preparation introduces uncertainty at a position where continuity and confidence are critical.
Australia's backup goalkeeper enters the competition with minimal senior international experience; this is not reflective of their talent, but rather of their lack of experience, which could flip the hosts' chances of winning this competition.
Tournament football places unique demands on players with short turnarounds, limited recovery and with the possibility of matches being decided by a single moment. Any player whose workload in the build-up has been restricted, even precautionary, is more of a concern than in a domestic season.
Though Australia's favour is the return of Mary Fowler and Sam Kerr after both suffered ACL injuries, this brings a blend of veterans and emerging players to the squad. Though players coming back from long-term injuries without consistent minutes can change the balance of the tournament, especially if minutes are to be managed to prevent re-injury.
With this tournament being in the middle of the European league season, players from those leagues do not have the benefit of training camps and prep. While they will be in form and fitness, they will have had only one week to prepare for this tournament, including adjusting to the time zone and climate, which can take a toll on the body and mind.
The wait for expectation is high. Australia is coming into the competition as the team to beat, with core contenders for the title.
From the knockout, the wins will not be decided solely on sustained dominance but also on set-piece execution, defensive concentration, and goalkeeping, with intervention in decisive moments.
In that environment, even minor uncertainty in key positions can have outsized consequences. A single rebound, a mistimed punch, or a misjudged claim can determine whether a campaign continues or ends abruptly.
For Australia, much of the narrative will focus on attacking firepower and star quality. Quietly, though, the tournament may be shaped by how successfully they navigate their least experienced positions.
Japan arrived as the tournament’s most complete side, carrying both pedigree and a quiet sense of unfinished business. Japan have combined tactical control with technical depth. They are the core team that will compete with Australia.
The spine is built around players comfortable dictating tempo under pressure, with Yui Hasegawa central to their ability to dominate possession and suffocate opponents through positioning rather than physicality. Japan’s strength lies not just in individual quality but in collective intelligence: rotations are sharp, pressing triggers are well-drilled, and their defensive organisation allows them to absorb pressure without losing structure.
After the disappointment of falling short in 2022, there is a clear sense that this group is better equipped and will want to beat Australia in Australia. Anything short of at least the semi-final and automatic qualification for both Australia and Japan would be a failure.
Group stage: 1–10 March 2026
Quarter-finals: 13–15 March 2026
Semi-finals: 17–18 March 2026
Third-place / World Cup play-off matches: 19 March 2026
Final: 21 March 2026
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