Is the WSL title race for the 2025/26 season over already?
Currently, Manchester City leads the WSL by 9 points with 9 matches remaining. They have won twelve consecutive league games since losing to Chelsea on the opening day of the season. Manchester City have scored in their 27 WSL matches, which is the longest scoring run in the competition’s history. This season, they are averaging 2.7 goals per game and have scored 36 goals in total.
Unlike Chelsea, Manchester City are not involved in four different competitions;s they are only fighting in two competitions, the league and the FA Cup. Chelsea is still in all four competitions, so they have to manage player load and fitness.
To add extra context, just 10 days before this weekend's match, the first and second in the table faced off in the League Cup semi-final. Chelsea did win by the skin of their teeth. They had very few chances but were able to capitalise. Manchester City had bucketloads of chances, including open-goal moments, but couldn't put it in the back of the net.
This result will only motivate them more to respond to that defeat and Chelsea's loss to Arsenal and get one back. Chelsea needs to learn from Arsenal: with five shots on target but no goals, the final execution is missing. They are at a psychological crossroads; they could either be affected by the historic nature of the game or, as with their loss to Everton, use it as motivation, knowing that another loss could effectively end their title challenge and the last ever quadruple.
Chelsea’s history as eight-time WSL champions suggests they are unlikely to accept defeat internally.
While last weekend's action was the last nail in Chelsea's chances of winning an unprecedented seven straight WSL titles, it's not impossible.
The weekend's match against Manchester City at the Etihad will be the decider. If Manchester City come back and extends its lead to 12 points by beating Chelsea, it leaves little realistic chance of the Blues winning the title. A draw would maintain City’s nine-point lead.
But with Arsenal only one point behind Chelsea, they could be bumped down to third. This is not helped either by City's superior goal difference. While Chelsea have not conceded many goals, they have not scored as many as in recent seasons. A win for Chelsea away is crucial to reducing the gap to six points and keeping any chance of the title alive, particularly with City facing upcoming matches against Arsenal and Manchester United, where the Blues will hope they drop points.
Since the start of last season, Chelsea have averaged 2.1 points per game against traditional top-four opposition, while Manchester City have averaged 0.9 points per game in the same fixtures. Manchester City will face Chelsea and Arsenal in consecutive league weekends, creating a period that could define the season.
Manchester City are three wins away from breaking their club record 14-game WSL winning streak from the 2023–24 season. That same season serves as a cautionary example, as City surrendered a six-point lead late in the campaign and lost the title to Chelsea on goal difference. This history highlights that while City are overwhelming favourites, the title race is not yet mathematically or psychologically resolved.
Chelsea defender Lucy Bronze has rejected the idea that the title race is over. She said:
“Not really. Many people might forget that I played in a title race for Liverpool. We actually were in third place in the last game of the season. And we won the league. I know how these things can ebb and flow. They can change.”
Bronze also acknowledged Manchester City’s advantage in terms of focus, saying:
“It’s maybe a bit easier for City because they’re not in the League Cup. They’re not in the Champions League. They can focus a bit more.”
She concluded by reinforcing Chelsea’s mentality, stating:
“I’d never say a die attitude. I think that’s what Chelsea is known for.”
So while the WSL title win for Chelsea looks far off and unrealistic on paper, it's not mathematically over, and there's still a chance.
Add comment
Comments